Forecasting Outpatient Visits At Marimanti Level 4 Hospital: Time Series Analysis Using Sarima Model

Abstract

The outpatient department (OPD) is the first point of contact in all hospitals, and patients create opinions about the hospital based on the quality of service they receive at OPD. The purpose of the study is to develop a Statistical model to forecast outpatient attendance at Marimanti Level 4 Hospital using SARIMA modeling. Monthly outpatient visits data obtained from Marimanti level 4 hospital (from January, 2013 to December, 2023) was used in the study. R and R Studio software were used for data analysis. The study employed the Box-Jenkins technique in modelling. The model that minimized the Information criteria was deemed the most plausible among a set of competing models. SARIMA (0,1,2) (2,1,1)12 was the best model (AIC = 1139.56, BIC = 1154.52). The forecasting accuracy of the model was evaluated using the MAPE = 1.66% and MASE = 0.47%. Generally, the 2 years ahead forecast showed an increasing trend. Therefore, the hospital Management ought to take into consideration the forecasts to enable them prepare adequately in terms of resource allocation and planning purposes.